Monday, December 29, 2008

War and Rumors of War

Bad news. Israel has begun a large offensive in the Gaza Strip:
The Israel Defense Forces said Monday that the battle in Gaza was only beginning, and that "the worst is not behind us — it is still ahead of us" during a briefing to southern communities.
This is actually not what I'm afraid of. Hamas is a proxy force which Iran uses to attack Israel. I strongly suspect that Israel is not actually interested in wiping out Hamas, although I'm sure they wouldn't mind that happening. But it is simply not realistic. I think they want to severely disrupt Hamas in preparation for something larger, so that Hamas will be less able to inflict a counterattack. I think Israel is in preparation for an imminent attack on the Iranian nuclear program. Of course, one can never know until it has already happened, and many a prognosticator has looked foolish for predicting this event over the last several years. I'll probably join the ranks. I certainly hope so. Actually, I very much sympathize with the Israeli side of the conflict. I just think that military action is simply not going to work. As much as I hate to see Iran get nukes, I don't think that an attack is going to solve the problem or make the situation any better. I've been secretly hoping that the financial strain of falling oil prices on Iran would do the regime in. It is already unpopular and has been for a long time. Plus, nukes cost money. But the US seems intent on printing money, which jacked up the prices in the first place, and engaging in military action in the region, which doesn't help either. So it looks like we are in for more of the same. Can it get any worse? Why yes, as a matter of fact, it can...

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