Thursday, October 30, 2008

Obama Will Win Big....Probably

electoral-vote.com has it at 375 Obama to 157 McCain, Politico shows 364, 174, and most mainstream maps point to an Obama landslide as well.  Intrade prediction markets stand at 84.3 Obama, 15.8 McCain.  Things don’t seem to be going well for McCain.  This week and last there were reports of rebellion from Palin, finger-pointing in his own camp, and various conservatives and Republicans endorsing Obama.  All this signals a ship that is on it’s way down, and the McCain campaign is grasping for air in this last week.

 

My prediction:  Obama will win big…with one huge caveat. 

 

As long as something does not surface this week that scares voters into voting for McCain.  McCain’s whole campaign has been based on fear; fear that Obama is a (black) Muslim, terrorist, elitist, Anti-American, socialist, Marxist, tax-raiser/distributor, Anti-Christ, etc.  Sadly, I think this strategy is working.  Some polls are already beginning to narrow.  And even sadder, it's all McCain has to run on. 

 

It is reported that the LA Times has a damaging tape of Obama at some sort of Palestinian meeting or rally.  And Palin is now trying to link Obama to the PLO.  Rush Limbaugh pounced on this story faster than you can say ditto.  If the tape or any other surprise go mainstream in time, and more importantly stick in the minds of voters, mix in a little Bradley effect, and McCain could stage a huge upset.  

Otherwise, it will be an Obama landslide.

1 comment:

  1. Looks good Ben! Congratulations on your first post!

    ReplyDelete